How is the Melbourne property prices trending? According to the latest research shown by analysts at Macquarie Bank, property prices across Melbourne has already stabilised and will rise moderately in 2018. Earlier, ANZ also shown that the overall value of Melbourne's real-estate market will dramatically fall by the end of this year and pick up again afterwards. The first-half of 2018 will also be the best opportunity to invest in the market.
Latest statistics show that property prices across Melbourne have stabilised or is showing a reverse growth.
Based on the data released by APM and CoreLogic RP Data, analysts at Perceptive Bank has examined the seasonal changes in home prices. They believe that the residential pricing growth and activities should be seasonal, and data must be seasonally adjusted to fully comprehend and evaluate the pricing trend of Melbourne's real-estate market.
After seasonal adjustment, APM believes that property prices in the capital city have risen modestly in the recent few months. CoreLogic also arrived to the same conclusion.
The black trend line in the image indicates that property prices have rebounded significantly in early January this year. However, according to the CoreLogic's statistics shown in mid-January, the monthly sales volume is still low because property prices have risen conspicuously since seasonal adjustment.
By looking at the current data, the pricing trend is obviously positive. However, analysts at Macquarie are still cautious, not overly optimistic about the pricing trend.
Justin Fabo and Ric Devere, creators of this report, indicates that there are three major reasons of why the Melbournen property market will not experience another significant rise like the 2016's.
Firstly, the official interest rate lowered by 50 basis points, and instead there will be more related to predictions about the rate hike this year. The increasing interest rate will eventually become the main obstacle for property prices, by examining past circumstances.
Secondly, under the supervision of APRA, banks will become more strict about loans and mortgages.
Lastly, by the end of 2016, another important factor relating to the increasing housing price of Sydney and Melbourne is the low interest rate compared to the high rate of return, so the property markets has attracted numerous investors.
By examining the current overall situation, although it is difficult for Melbournen's property market in 2018 to be prosperous like the 2016's property market, but the market will not endure a sharp decline, and instead will have a moderate rise.
The ANZ bank forecasts that the housing price will increase after June 2018.
In December 2017, property prices in Sydney and Melbourne have both fallen. However, ANZ asserts that the value of the property markets will dramatically fall to 1% by the end of this year and recover to 2% afterwards.
However, activities in the property market will vary in different regions and cities. The weakening of Sydeny and Melbourne's property market value will be the main reason for the national housing price hike.
Experts predict that currently, Melbourne apartments has a median price of $474,000, and will slide between $451,000 and $463,000 in 2018.
The most optimistic prediction is from Andrew Wilson, the chief economist of Domain Group. He predicts that the price of Melbourne apartments will rise to 3%, reaching the median price of $489,000.
However, the director of SQM research Louis Christopher believes that government policies such as the loan restrictions that were initially implemented to suppress price rise, will impact the property market value.
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(Note: Contents in this article are extracted from the We-chat account of Goldmate (goldmate_group))
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